Three of Wales’ four regions know that Judgement Day will mark the final game of a long season but for some there’s the opportunity of international honours this summer against Australia.

With Scarlets, Cardiff Rugby and Dragons unable to reach the postseason playoffs you would be forgiven for thinking nothing was on the line.

However, with Warren Gatland set to name his squad for the summer tests against South Africa and Australia there are still plenty of places up for grabs at Twickenham and on the plane to Sydney and Melbourne.

So who is sure of their place, who is nearly there and who could yet make a late push for Warren Gatland’s squad?

 

The Certainties

On the back of performances during Wales’ Six Nations and domestic form, some players are certain on their place this summer.

Starting with the backs and Cardiff Rugby’s Cam Winnett who has been one of the most consistent performers for club and country this season, he will certainly be on the plane and will likely be joined by clubmate Josh Adams.

By his own admission, Adams didn’t have his most successful of seasons, however, the British and Irish Lion offers much needed experience to what is likely to be a young backline including the likes of Dragons’ Rio Dyer who is almost guaranteed to start.

Centres is where there is the most uncertainty, with George North’s international resignation and Joe Roberts out with injury there are few out and out 13s aside from Mason Grady who also offers an option on the wing to cover for Dyer and Adams.

At fly-half, Gatland has strongly backed Sam Costelow to be the future for Wales and despite a season blighted by injury along and disappointing results he will surely be on the plane, whilst Tomos Williams will be there if he recovers from ruptured ankle ligaments.

In the forwards Dragons eight Aaron Wainwright will be hoping to continue after a successful Six Nations and Leicester’s Tommy ‘Turnover’ Reffell will surely join him, despite being unavailable for Wales’ game against South Africa as it falls outside the international window.

Two others who may miss the game against the ‘Boks are Six Nations captain Dafydd Jenkins and Will Rowlands as they are based at Exeter and at Racing 92 respectively but both will surely be on their way to Australia in the second row.

Front row will see Ospreys’ Gareth Thomas and Cardiff’s Corey Domachowski head as looseheads whilst the hooker position will see Ryan Elias and Elliot Dee on the plane alongside tighthead Keiron Assiratti.

The Probables

World Cup co-captains Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake are almost certainties having returned from injury in recent weeks for Ospreys. Exeter’s Christ Tshiunza was another who missed the Six Nations, but with Teddy Williams and Adam Beard out he offers cover at either six or in the locks.

Taine Plumtree could join him after a lengthy spell out with injury, but should he and Tshiunza go to Australia, it would limit opportunities for Cardiff Rugby’s Alex Mann, who performed well during his debut Six Nations.

Ioan Lloyd looks almost certain of a seat on the plane, with Callum Sheedy injured and both Jarrod Evans and Rhys Patchell unavailable to face South Africa at least. Owen Watkin has been consistent this season and is able to play in either position in the centres.

Scarlets’ Gareth Davies and Kieran Hardy, who will be at Ospreys next season, could be the scrum-halves alongside Tomos Williams, however, they may be under pressure from Reuben Morgan-Williams after a good season for the former Ystalyfera pupil.

The Possibles

One who perhaps deserves a chance again on the international stage is Cardiff’s Ben Thomas, who hasn’t appeared for Wales since the autumn of 2021. Thomas has played predominantly at 12 this season, although he impressed against Sharks at 10 recently and Gatland has previously said he’d like to see the 25-year-old at outside-half.

At eight, Mackenzie Martin was given an opportunity in the Six Nations and looks like a hot prospect but many, particularly at the Swansea.com Stadium, will hope Ospreys’ Morgan Morris gets rewards for his brilliant form, having won three player of the match awards in Ospreys’ last four wins.

Nick Tompkins has been a mainstay of recent Welsh squads in the centres but will miss the game against South Africa as will Gloucester’s Max Llewellyn. Ospreys’ Kieran Williams and Scarlets’ Johnny Williams are other possible options who were in Wales’ World Cup training squad.

On the wing, Keelan Giles and Theo Cabango could be in line for first caps along with Scarlets’ Tomi Lewis, whilst Tom Rogers offers the capability of playing at full back.

Nicky Smith could well be playing his last game in an Ospreys shirt on Saturday before joining Leicester Tigers and has arguably been the best scrummaging loosehead in Wales this season. However, he has been overlooked by both Gatland and Wayne Pivac in the past and may well miss out in favour of Scarlets’ Kemsley Matthias.

On the Sportin Wales podcast this week, former Wales prop and Wales U20s coach Chris Horsman suggested he’d like to see Bath prop Archie Griffin get an opportunity this summer after his debut against England.

Other tight-head props who may be available include: Dragons’ Leon Brown; Scarlets’ Harri O’Connor; Rhys Henry and Tom Botha from Ospreys; while Will Davies-King could be in with a shout from Cardiff along with Dillon Lewis at Harlequins.

Of those above Brown, O’Connor, Griffin and Lewis all played a part in the Six Nations along with Assiratti, but it is hard to argue against the scrummaging form of Botha and Henry at Ospreys.

Rob Sidoli said he’d like to see Dragons lock Ben Carter get an opportunity along with 10 Will Reed, who could replace his Rodney Parade teammate Cai Evans in the squad.

Carter could fit in at second row as could Ospreys’ James Ratti who has shown good form this year, although both could miss out in favour of Ratti’s teammate James Fender who went from a relative unknown to one of the form players in Wales at the beginning of the URC season before suffering a shoulder injury in January.

This summer may come too soon for Fender in which case Seb Davies could receive make a first appearance in two years for his country.

The Wildcards

There are quite a few possible wildcards this summer.

Murmurings continue that Gatland might call up Liam Williams and Cory Hill from Japan and Tomas Francis, based in France, whilst any Welsh supporter who has seen Cameron Hanekom play for Bulls this season will hope he turns down double World Cup winners South Africa for Wales.

Both Dragons youngsters Joe Westwood and Ryan Woodman could make an appearance this summer, however Woodman may well go to the U20s World Cup as captain and Westwood might be too inexperienced at this stage.

Harri Deaves has had a brilliant season for Ospreys this season, however faces an uphill task to get in at seven ahead of Morgan and Reffell and may miss out to the versatility of James Botham or Taine Basham.

Dan Edwards could be one to sneak on the plane to gain experience at fly-half, with the 21-year-old looking like a good prospect for the future or perhaps even the present although this may come too soon in his development.

Gloucester’s Josh Hathaway has played for Wales and England U20s and may well be offered an opportunity to gain an international cap.