URC Play-off Push Explained
As things stand, the battle for the play-offs is incredibly tight with only five points separating Lions in 11th and Stormer in fifth, with Munster a further four points ahead in fourth.
Ospreys currently sit seventh, level on points with Ulster who are a place below them and only a point above Edinburgh, Connacht and Lions.
It may be a tad early to look at the permutations which every team still with five games left to play but where do things stand and who do they have to face.
1st Leinster – 54 points
It comes as no surprise that Leinster sit top of the tree once again having finished there in each of the last five seasons.
After their home win over the Bulls, Leinster need six points to secure a play-off place and their focus will turn to securing a home quarter final, whilst they will be out to right the wrongs of the last two years having fallen at the semi-finals stage in both seasons.
Leinster travel to South Africa to face Lions and Stormers followed by home games against Ospreys and Connacht either side of a trip to Ulster in Gameweek 17.
2nd Glasgow – 49 points
Glasgow’s seven-try thrashing of Scarlets on Saturday all-but secured their place in the end of season play-offs.
Glasgow host Sharks next before facing Zebre in Parma and then they too go to South Africa to face Bulls and Lions, finishing at home to bottom-of-the-league Zebre.
3rd Bulls – 45 points
After their 47-14 defeat in Dublin, Bulls can enjoy a stretch of home games with fellow play-off hopefuls Munster, Ospreys, Glasgow and Benetton all travelling to Loftus.
The Bulls are yet to lose at home in the URC to a side from outside of South Africa and will hope to maintain that with games against Munster and Glasgow in particular key in their pursuit of home turf advantage on route to the play-off final.
All three teams above should have enough to secure their place in the play-offs but the battle below them is set to be an incredibly tense affair.
4th Munster – 43 points
Munster wing Sean O’Brien labelled their bonus-point win last week at the Swansea.com stadium their “Biggest game of the season” and after a late win against Cardiff at home they have enhanced their chances of finishing in the play-offs.
Like Leinster and Glasgow, last year’s champions have to travel to South Africa with Bulls and Lions up next before home Irish derbies against Connacht and Ulster with a trip to Edinburgh sandwiched in between.
Fixtures: Bulls (A), Lions (A), Connacht (H), Edinburgh (A), Ulster (H).
5th Stormers – 39 points
Stormers’ win over Ulster on Saturday makes them the leading contender in a group of seven teams separated by five points.
The 2021/22 champions are unbeaten at home this season and host Ospreys and Leinster before travelling to Dragons and Connacht before ending at home again to Emirates Lions.
Fixtures: Ospreys (H), Leinster (H), Dragons (A), Connacht (A), Lions (H).
6th Benetton – 37 points
Benetton have a chance of reaching the play-offs for only the second time the other being in 2018-19. Their season so far has been based on seeing out close wins with eight victories, one draw but only two try bonusses so far and they are the only team inside the current top eight with a negative points difference so far this season.
They will be hoping for another four try or more display when they host Dragons in a couple of weeks’ time but after that they travel to Ulster, Sharks and Bulls before a crunch tie at home to Edinburgh on the final day.
Fixtures: Dragons (H), Ulster (A), Sharks (A), Bulls (A), Edinburgh (H).
7th Ospreys – 35 points
Amongst the trials of tribulations of Welsh rugby this season, Ospreys have consistently performed well and picked up crucial wins when needed.
However, they face a “difficult” run to the end of the season and will be hoping they don’t rue missed opportunities, falling short of a win at Edinburgh a fortnight ago and missing out on two bonus points at home to Munster with the last play of the game.
Despite the difficult fixture list, there is form, having recently won in South Africa in the European Challenge Cup whilst they beat Leinster in Dublin the last time they played there in 2021
Fixtures: Stormers (A), Bulls (A), Leinster (A), Dragons (H), Cardiff (A).
8th Ulster – 35 points
It has been a disappointing season for Ulster, who’s head coach Dan McFarland departed after a string of poor results in both Europe and the URC, with his last match in charge a dramatic 19-17 loss at the Swansea.com stadium.
Since then performances have improved with a seven-try victory over Dragons coupled with admiral performances in South Africa including what may yet be a crucial losing bonus points against Stormers last time out.
Fixtures: Cardiff (H), Benetton (H), Scarlets (A), Leinster (H), Munster (A).
9th Edinburgh – 34 points
Like Benetton, Scotland’s capital city club have only earned two try bonus points this season which is why they sit behind Ulster in the table despite having one extra win.
Only once this season have Edinburgh won a game by more than seven points in the league which will be good news to Benetton and Munster in their pursuit of a top-eight finish.
Fixtures: Scarlets (H), Cardiff (A), Zebre (H), Munster (H), Benetton (A).
10th Connacht – 34 points
Connacht were flying at the start of the season, winning four of their first five, including a one-point win over the Sharks in South Africa.
Losses in the Irish derbies by a combined total of three points will have been hard to stomach and following back-to-back wins over Cardiff and Scarlets their play-off bid has taken another hit with a humbling 14-38 home loss to the Lions and a four-point loss in Treviso.
Fixtures: Zebre (H), Dragons (A), Munster (A), Stormers (H), Leinster (A).
11th Lions – 34 points
Despite being 11th, Lions have a points difference of +77, based on the fact that when they lose it’s tight and when they win they win big.
Their loss against the Ospreys was only their second by more than seven points and despite losing the first three games of the season by five points or less they have since put 61 points on Zebre, 49 on the Dragons and 40 on the Sharks along with that win in Galway.
Fixtures: Leinster (H), Munster (H), Cardiff (H), Glasgow (H), Stormers (A).
Cardiff, Dragons and Scarlets
Bizarrely, due to the way the fixtures fall, no side has yet been ruled out from the play-offs with Cardiff, Sharks, Scarlets, Dragons and Zebre all fewer than 25 points behind eighth place Ulster.
Cardiff are the side best placed to make a late surge on 24 points having won three and drawn one of their 13 games. They will be ruing what might have been with only one of their nine losses coming by more than seven points and having been in the running for the win in several of the games.
Dragons gained their third win of the season at home against bottom of the table Zebre on Friday. They will rue being unable to take advantage of having had four of their first five games at home and then suffered chastening defeats in South Africa and at the Arms Parks on Boxing Day.
Scarlets suffered their record home and away league losses this season in the form of a 54-5 loss in Dublin and a 3-45 drubbing by Glasgow at Parc y Scarlets last weekend, both they and the Dragons have been unable to recover after confidence destroying losses in South Africa.