Prior to the Autumn Nations Series, Wales were in a difficult position.

Since losing a tight game against Argentina in the quarter-final of the 2023 Rugby World Cup, Wales had failed to win a test match in nine attempts.

Only wins against the Barbarians and Queensland Reds – the latter too close for comfort – were respite from a Six Nations Wooden Spoon, an uncompetitive one-off against South Africa, and a series defeat in Australia.

November’s matches – a trio of losses to Fiji, Australia, and South Africa – have seemingly extinguished any hope that Welsh fans had that the previous 12 months were merely a blip.

Initial Optimism

It is easy to forget that many connected to Welsh rugby went into these three fixtures with some degree of optimism.

Warren Gatland’s squad announcement was met with broad positivity, largely built on the fact that the four Welsh regions had improved individually in the first block of United Rugby Championship matches.

Scarlets backs Tom Rogers, Blair Murray, Eddie James, and Sam Costelow were rewarded for their side’s up-turn in form, while the attacking exploits of Tomos Williams, Gareth Anscombe, Max Llewellyn, and Josh Hathaway across the border at Gloucester had fans purring.

Add into the mix the return of senior players – Adam Beard, Will Rowlands, Jac Morgan, Aaron Wainwright, Anscombe, and Williams – from injury or summer rest, and there was cautious optimism that Wales could at the very least pull themselves out of their rut.

And what better game to play first than Fiji.

Flying Fijians First Win in Cardiff

Fiji travelled to Europe off the back of a successful Pacific Nations Cup campaign, beating Japan comfortably in the final, but had been soundly beaten in their first November fixture against Scotland.

However, with the Wales game falling inside World Rugby’s international window, Fiji were able to welcome back their formidable backs, most of whom play in France and were therefore unable to play at Murrayfield.

The likes of Semi Radradra, Jiuta Wainiqolo, co-captain Waisea Nayacalevu, Josua Tuisova all returned to the side, making up a truly terrifying back line.

The fact that head coach Mike Byrne could not find a spot for the Top 14’s top try scorer – Sireli Maqala – in the starting XV illustrated the defensive test Wales would be tasked with in their first game in four months.

The match started well for Gatland’s charges. Dual playmakers Anscombe and Ben Thomas combined to set debutant Blair Murray away down the wing for an opening score after just eight minutes.

Moments later, Wales had another try, as Cam Winnett dived over after more good backs play, only for the try to be ruled out for a dangerous cleanout from Tommy Reffell in the build-up.

Wales were undeterred and scored a second legitimate try on 19 minutes through their biggest weapon in recent times: the driving maul.

With the return of lineout maestro Adam Beard and the power Dewi Lake provides from the base, Wales drove over, forcing a penalty try and yellow card for Elia Canakaivata.

When Radradra was sent off just two minutes later for a high tackle on Winnett and score reading 14-3 to Wales, many fans will have been dreaming of a first win for over 12 months.

Perhaps it was a sign of Wales’ low confidence or Gatland’s inability to coach the ruthlessness teams need in international rugby, but Wales failed to score a point while Fiji only had 13 men on the pitch.

More gallingly, Fiji scored a try of their own to get back into the game before halftime. Caleb Muntz, the Fiji playmaker that makes it all tick, waltz through some sluggish Welsh forwards, burning past Winnett and Murray on the cover to score the try of the match.

Muntz kicked two more penalties after the break and suddenly Wales were trailing and displaying their familiar frailties.

Josua Tuisova’s try with 20 minutes to go looked to have knocked the stuffing out of Wales, as the sheer power of the Racing 92 centre was too much for the Welsh defence.

Wales rallied through their substitutes, though, and Sam Costelow’s wonderful pass released the backs and Ellis Bevan, playing on the wing due to Mason Grady’s earlier injury, scored to put the home side back within two points.

From there, many expected Wales to go on and win, having only lost once to Fiji before and never at home. It was not to be, however, as Muntz capped a player of the match performance with a game-sealing penalty five minutes from time.

Gatland’s Deflections

Wales’ only previous defeat to Fiji had come during the 2007 World Cup, with recent meetings, including last year’s World Cup group stage clash, usually resulting in fun, nerve-wracking matches that the men in red would win.

For Wales to have lost this match, it removed yet another semblance of superiority that the side had over Tier 2 teams. In a similar fashion to recent home defeats at the hands of Italy and Georgia, Wales had become a target for lower-ranked nations to record a first win against them.

After the match, the true extent of Wales’ problems were revealed. Gatland had picked a slightly ambitious 6-2 bench split, with Ellis Bevan and Sam Costelow covering the whole back line.

With two specialists on the bench, Gatland had gambled on the starting backline staying fit and the likes of Murray, Thomas, and Llewellyn being able to shift positions if necessary.

And yet, when Grady suffered a calf injury on 18 minutes, Sam Costelow replaced him on the wing, a decision that was an error. As revealed by Gatland after the match, the Wales coach wanted Bevan to come on for Grady instead of Costelow, only rectifying his error on 65 minutes when Anscombe came off and the Scarlets fly-half moved into his usual position.

This error and Gatland’s naked attempts to shift the blame onto individuals dominated the week between the Fiji and Australia matches, with the Wallabies travelling across the Severn buoyed by an extraordinary victory over England at Twickenham.

A Record Australian Defeat

Wales’ second match of the Autumn Internationals started in disastrous fashion, conceding three tries in the first 20 minutes of the match and finding themselves 0-19 down.

Gatland’s charges showed some excellent resilience prior to the interval, scoring a well-worked try through Wainwright, and ending the half six points behind.

However, by the time Wales next scored a point – Ben Thomas’ try on 67 minutes – Australia had scored three more tries and put the game out of sight. A hattrick of tries from hooker Matt Faessler underscored Wales’ reliance on Adam Beard to stop opposition mauls. The Ospreys lock had been replaced on seven minutes due to an injury and Wales’ lineout in attack and defence suffered badly.

Two more tries in the last few minutes from Len Ikitau and Tom Wright – another hattrick – put the seal on Australia’s biggest ever win over Wales: 20-52.

With this loss, Wales recorded their 11th consecutive test defeat – the longest losing streak in the country’s 143-year international rugby history. The fact that both Fiji and Australia had both received red cards made the results all the more galling.

Double World Champions For A Reason

It was a good thing then that Wales had a free hit in the third match of November. Oh wait, in rolled the South African war machine.

Double world champions had established themselves in the year since their second triumph not only as the best team in the world, but as part of a pantheon of the greatest sides in rugby history.

Many a Welsh fan would offer their own team of the 1970s as part of that argument, but Gatland’s young charges looked a far cry even from their valiant World Cup showing last year, let alone the teams of past glories.

A valiant first half effort (5-26) gave way to a more error-stewed but no less tiring second period (7-19) where Wales were able to keep the Springboks at bay without really asserting themselves on the contest.

It is a mark of where Wales are that many in red left the stadium quietly pleased that the scoreline told a story of an uncompetitive game, rather than a humiliation.

James Botham and Jac Morgan were excellent in the back row, while Dewi Lake looks more and more like a starting Lion as his ability, passion, and leadership has shone in the darkness of the last six months.

Searching For A Win

Having now lost 12 test matches in a row, the key for Wales is to target a match where they can arrest the slide.

In January, they travel to France for the first round of the 2025 Six Nations and not many will be predicting a first Welsh win in Paris since 2019.

With England and Ireland coming to Cardiff, Wales will also be underdogs for those matches. They must therefore target Italy in Rome as the best route to a win.

Having won 16 consecutive matches against Italy between 2008 and 2022, Wales have lost their last two home matches against Italy, including a strangely subdued 21-24 loss earlier this year.

Since moving to the Stadio Olympico, Wales have never lost to Italy and this fixture represents the best chance Gatland’s team have to register a first win since 2023.

Beyond that, Wales are rumoured to be touring Japan next summer, and with few of the team likely to be part of Andy Farrell’s British and Irish Lions squad, that tour can potentially be a springboard to something better.

Much has been made of Gatland first great Wales side of the early 2010s in recent weeks. Having won the Grand Slam in 2012, that team would then lose eight straight matches, including home defeats to Samoa and Argentina.

It was a mark of Gatland’s ability to turn things around in his first spell in charge that the side went on to win the 2013 Six Nations immediately after. While it is unrealistic to expect this much less experienced side to repeat that feat, the next year will be the biggest test of Gatland’s coaching credentials.

Here’s to 2025 being better than 2024!

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