The Big Sportin Wales Six Nations Preview

Rhodri Evans
As another Six Nations rolls into town, the mood in Wales is as low as it has been for many years.
Having won just two non-official matches against the Barbarians and Queensland Reds, Wales have now lost 12 test matches in a row, dating back to their World Cup quarter-final defeat to Argentina.
Those 12 matches without a win represent Wales’s worst ever run and, with a difficult trip to Paris on a Friday night first, Warren Gatland and his side will have to produce a performance not seen since the Australia World Cup win if they are to end that unwanted run.
Wales do have some experience returning to the squad compared to the summer and autumn tests, with Dafydd Jenkins and Jac Morgan now fully fit and firing, as well as Grand Slam winners Taulupe Faletau, Liam Williams, and Josh Adams all also back.
Underdogs
An oft-cited comment from Welsh fans is that the team tends to do well when written off.
Minds will cast back to 2012 when, off the back of a Six Nations Grand Slam, Wales lost nine matches in a row, including at home to Samoa and Argentina in the autumn.
When Wales found themselves 3-30 down two minutes into the second half at home to Ireland in the opening round of the 2013 Six Nations, many speculated whether Wales could be looking at the wooden spoon.
That tournament ended with perhaps Wales’s best result of the professional era: a complete dismantling of England, the Six Nations championship, and a total vindication of Gatland’s methods.
Whether Wales are going to vindicate Gatland’s methods this spring is a different matter.
Back in 2013, Wales had a team full of British and Irish Lions who had either been a key part of a successful World Cup semi-final side – Sam Warburton, Mike Phillips, Jamie Roberts – or players who would prove to be key parts of the next decade of Welsh success – Dan Biggar, George North, Jonathan Davies, and Faletau.
Learning on the job
Ahead of this tournament, Wales will be relying on a group of players who will be required to take a step up and become international calibre players, and fast.
Gatland himself will point to current key players such as Morgan, Jenkins, Dewi Lake, Aaron Wainwright who were all thrown onto international stage early and have thrived.
However, since rejoining the Wales set up in late 2022, there have also been numerous others who have been tried, tested, and discarded. Mackenzie Martin, Ioan Lloyd, Cam Winnett, and Alex Mann were all at one point or another key parts of the Wales squad and yet were not considered for the current squad.
Even more experienced names such as Gareth Anscombe, Max Llewellyn, Dillon Lewis, and Rio Dyer have been left out, with Gatland citing a myriad of reasons including poor form, tactics, and age.
Despite this, an optimist would claim that a potential Wales XV including the likes of Morgan, Wainwright, and Faletau in the back row, Tomos Williams at scrumhalf, an in-form centre partnership of Eddie James and Joe Roberts, and a back three of Williams, Adams, and Tom Rogers can compete with anyone in the tournament.
Underpowered
The worries for Wales, as is often the case, is front five power. With Dewi Lake and Ryan Elias injured, an undercooked Elliot Dee is expected to start at hooker, while quality prop depth has been an issue for a while now.
Add in the loss of Adam Beard to injury, and Wales will be relying on Jenkins as a lineout caller, despite the fact that he time in camp is limited due to his Exeter Chiefs commitments.
In recent successes, such as the 2021 Six Nations title or successful 2023 World Cup group stage, Wales could rely on a front five that, despite not blowing teams off the park like a South African or French pack, could be a stable base upon which to play.
How Wales will play is also an unanswered question right now. It is clear from Gatland’s selections that he does not have a preferred flyhalf, having tried Lloyd and Sam Costelow in the Six Nations, Ben Thomas on the summer tour, and Anscombe in the autumn.
With Anscombe left out in the cold, and Costelow unfortunately injured the week before squad selection, Gatland has selected two very inexperienced flyhalves.
Thomas started both tour matches in Australia at flyhalf and was subsequently shifted out to his natural inside centre role during the autumn. It is clear that Gatland likes what he sees in Thomas but is unsure at how to deploy him best.
The other option in the squad is uncapped 21-year-old Dan Edwards. Given the reigns at Ospreys this season, Edwards has been the form 10 in Wales but throwing him in from the start would be a risk.
Gone are the days of Biggar, Rhys Priestland, Rhys Patchell and Anscombe all competing for the shirt. Now, Wales are looking at makeshift and inexperienced options to guide them in this tournament.
‘The most exciting challenge’
That is not to say that Gatland is not bullish about Wales’s chances this year.
At the Six Nations launch in Rome, when asked whether this was the biggest test of his career, Gatland responded: “No, it is the most exciting challenge.”
“I look back to the World Cup in France where a lot of people were predicting we would not get out of that group. One of the things I said is ‘write us off at your peril.’”
He was keen to stress that he wants to build a group that thrives off positivity, something that has been sorely missed in recent years.
“It’s been about creating some positivity,” said Gatland.
“It is almost like creating a siege mentality and realising there is a lot of negativity and criticism from outside towards myself and the coaches and the players.
“We need to put some confidence back in and create that self-belief. It’s about bonding and working hard as a group. The messaging is to try and get rid of that negativity, don’t let social media take over too much or what is being said externally.
“Sometimes it creates a bond within a group with some positive momentum going into the tournament.”
Going on a run
Momentum is key in a tournament like the Six Nations, and Wales will be targeting the duo of away matches in Paris and Rome to start their tournament off on the right foot.
“The first two games are incredibly important,” adds Gatland.
“We have been to Paris before on a number of occasions and won there. There are no expectations on us, everybody is writing us off and it is a nice position to be in.
“Sometimes the French have demonstrated in the past they have been slow starters in this tournament. We can hopefully go there with the ambition of them being underdone and a little bit cold, so hopefully we can get off to a good start.”
Getting the fans onside
With home matches against Ireland and England sold out and a Welsh public desperate to see some winning rugby, Gatland has called on fans to redouble their support for his team.
“They have been brilliant over the years, they are incredibly passionate,” he says.
“They have a lot of expectation and that is understandable. It is a tournament where we have probably punched above our weight and done well in over the last 10-15 years.
“It’s only right they should expect us to go out there and do well.”
Pressure on Gatland
With WRU chief executive Abi Tierney suggesting that anything other than a ‘successful’ Six Nations would spell the end of Gatland’s tenure, there is the potential that for the final day home match against England, unlike 2013 when Wales were gunning for the title, the team will instead be hoping to save their boss’s job.
Gatland has already given signals that he is under pressure, suggesting that participants, including players, involved in an independent review of Wales’s recent failures ‘had not experienced a winning environment.’
As part of the wide-ranging report conducted by an external company and presented to Tierney, players were canvassed for anonymous feedback following a November campaign that saw Wales beaten by Fiji, Australia and South Africa.
“The questions I ask sometimes, of the players that have given feedback and stuff, what has their experience been in a professional winning environment?” Gatland said of the review.
“None of them have had that experience, so how do they know what that looks like? What is their experience or involvement in high-level professional sport winning environments?
“I’d like to think we’ve got people who have been involved with that environment and are lucky enough and able to draw on those past experiences, who know what it feels and smells like to be part of it.”
Gatland has of course experienced a wining culture as Wales coach in his previous tenure, from 2008 to 2019, but his second spell in charge has yielded just six wins in 24 matches.
If he does not improve on that record this spring, then Wales will be looking for a new coach.
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